Forecasting & Market Modeling
Security Constrained Economic Dispatch (SCED) Analysis
Gain insights into how transmission congestion and constraints impact your business, including the impacts of marginal losses, economic curtailment, and basis to trading hubs within ISOs; or redispatch risks, curtailment risks, and avoided energy costs in traditional markets.
Increase your understanding about how trends in power markets impact asset revenue, production costs, emissions, and hub prices. Forecast how penetration of intermittent resources will impact operating reserves and ancillary service requirements through sub-hourly simulations and accompanying statistical analyses.
Resource Adequacy Assessment
Resource Adequacy is becoming more complicated as the power industry utilizes increasing levels of intermittent resources and energy storage combined with fuel volatility, extreme weather and other factors. Gain insight into the impacts of these issues on Expected Unserved Energy (EUE), Loss of Load Probability, Hours, or Expectation (LOLP, LOLH or LOLE), Expected Load Carrying Capability (ELCC), and planning reserve margins, possibly redefining how we look at resource adequacy.
Reliability and Power Flow Analyses
Examine the reliability of the power system through power flow studies under various scenarios, such as heat waves, cold snaps, load growth, interconnection of new resources, and outage/retirement of existing resources, while meeting minimum NERC reliability standards or other planning criteria.
Load forecasting is foundational to power system planning and has become increasingly challenging given impacts of increasing energy efficiency, demand-side programs, distributed generation, swings in energy prices, electrification—particularly electric vehicles, and other factors. We can help you untangle these diverse influences and clarify the likely future trends in system load, as well as develop scenarios encompassing a reasonable range of uncertainty.
Failure of key assets such as loss of a transmission right-of-way due to wildfire, failure of a natural gas pipeline, extended heat waves and polar vortices, sudden reduction in wind and solar output due to weather fronts, severe drought curtailing hydro production, loss of substation due to bad actors, and more, can result in extremes to power system operations at the very time the power system is most needed (e.g., cooling during heat waves). Increase your appreciation of these risks.